Supply matters

Research evidence excerpt

Supply matters

AI related supply

The most uncertainty about supply in 2H-2026 arguably comes from the hyperscalers

and other AI-related supply. Across currencies, the hyperscalers have issued $194bn YtD

(Exhibit 17). That’s higher than our latest full-year forecast of $175bn. The combination

of 1) the ever-increasing capex spending but also 2) high cash balances, significant cash

generation and equity rases means the hyperscalers could theoretically issue anywhere

from zero to $100+bn in 2H-2026, depending on their preferences and market

conditions. We pencil in another $50bn based on our analyst Tom Curcuruto expecting

potential deals from MSFT and META in 2H (see High Grade Technology: Maintaining ‘26

hyperscaler supply forecast but expect more in ‘27). We also have $25bn in data center

issuance in 2H, similar to 1H-2026.

Exhibit 12: The YtD AI supply has reached $270bn – up +99% from the full year 2025.

YtD AI supply reached $270bn, including $194bn for the hyperscaler across currencies.

Hyperscaler USD IG supply ($bn) Hyperscaler non-USD ($bn)

250 Data center ($bn) NVDA, SPCX

2016 2017 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: BofA Global Research

BofA GLOBAL RESEARCH

Banks

Bank supply accelerated significantly in 2026, driving the spreads for the big six US

banks / brokers wider (Exhibit 13, Exhibit 14). For US banks, the increase was due to

higher capital market activities. That should continue in the second half. Still, our analyst

Tom Curcuruto expects US bank supply to slow to $124bn in 2H from $199bn in 1H (see

High Grade Banks: More supply than expected, again; reviewing drivers).

European bank supply should be relatively unchanged for the full year and was likely

front-loaded (see Money In The Bank: Easing supply needs). Morerover, more issuance