Systematic Flows Monitor: Equity trend stays elevated, Treasury shorts persist, and Oil longs reawaken

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Systematic Flows Monitor: Equity trend stays elevated, Treasury shorts persist, and Oil longs reawaken

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Systematic Flows Monitor

Equity trend stays elevated, Treasury

shorts persist, and Oil longs reawaken

Equity positioning still supported as trends stay elevated 10 July 2026

Global equities were mixed this week, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq advancing while the Equity Derivatives

other indices we track declined. Despite the divergence, estimated CTA equity Global

positioning remained largely unchanged as price trends continue to hold near their

maximum levels. However, some of the fastest-moving trend followers may have

marginally reduced S&P 500 exposure as all-time highs rolled out of short-term lookback

windows. As in recent weeks, positioning remains more sensitive to changes in realized

volatility than to modest moves in spot prices. Notably, Russell 2000 positioning has

recovered to levels last seen in Jan/Feb, while most other equity indices would require a

further decline in vol to fully rebuild. With trends still firmly positive, the risk of broad Table of Contents

systematic deleveraging remains limited. However, the Euro Stoxx 50 stop-loss trigger

has moved closer and now sits 2.8% below Friday's close. Systematic Equity Flows Snapshot 2

SPX Option Gamma Positioning 3

CTAs still short US Tsy futures as yields move higher Trend Following (CTA) Model 4

US yields rose for the second straight week, and CTAs likely benefited with shorts Leveraged and Inverse ETFs 14

mostly intact across the curve. Shorts remain most stretched at the front end with Risk Parity Model 16

trends holding at more negative levels leaving positioning more dependent on vol in 2yr S&P 500 Equity Vol Control 16

and 5yr futures.