Restaurants Weekly: Comps and cups

Research evidence excerpt

Restaurants Weekly: Comps and cups

1Q’s -7.8% decline, it’s largely due grace.nguyen@bofa.com

to an easier compare. Comments from McDonald’s franchisees seemed to diverge more

than at other systems, a dynamic that likely reflects muted systemwide trends. If our Stock symbol key:

clients’ expectations of flattish McDonald’s comps are correct, then strong execution can BROS: Dutch Bros

be the difference between healthy comp growth and unwelcome comp declines. BLMN: Bloomin Brands

CAKE: The Cheesecake Factory

World Cup bounce CAVA: Cava

CBRL: Cracker BarrelMCD’s trends do appear to have improved somewhat in June, perhaps boosted by the

CMG: Chipotle

FIFA World Cup Meal and Collectibles. But even non-sponsors have reaped some DNUT: Krispy Kreme

benefits from the World Cup, as we show in this week’s Chart of the Week. According to DPZ: Domino’s Pizza

BAC aggregated credit and debit card data, restaurant spending growth in host cities DRI: Darden Restaurants

outpaced the rest of the country by approximately 2 percentage points during the FWRG: First Watch

second half of June. For bars in host cities, the boost was bigger – closer to 5 ppts – and JACK: Jack in the Box

started earlier. It does appear, however, that the U.S. exit from the tournament has MCD: McDonald’s

brought these benefits to a rather abrupt halt, suggesting that fans are more likely to PTLO: Portillo’s

celebrate publicly with friends, while perhaps drowning their sorrows privately at home. QSR: Restaurant Brands Int’l / RBI

RBI: Restaurant Brands Int’l

Chart of the week: Spending gets a kick SBUX: Starbucks

SG: SweetgreenOur Chart of the Week compares restaurant and bar spending growth in World Cup host

SHAK: Shake Shackcities versus the rest of the country over the past three months. See our BofA on USA