M&A Boutiques 2Q26 Preview: Missing in action... for now

Research evidence excerpt

M&A Boutiques 2Q26 Preview: Missing in action... for now

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US Banks

M&A Boutiques 2Q26 Preview: Missing in

action… for now

Price Objective Change

Fading shock from software/oil = pick-up ahead 10 July 2026

Global strategic and sponsor M&A activity maintained a healthy pace in 2Q26 Equity

(+7%/+26% YoY; Exhibit 2). However, activity was lopsided with large-cap deal volume United States

+35% vs. -5% YoY for mid-market (see Exhibit 3). Consensus 2Q EPS estimates for the Banks

boutique investment banks have been revised -2.1% since pre-1Q earnings (mid-April), Gabriel Angelini

while stocks are down -10.7% on average. A potential positive looking into 2H26 is that Research Analyst

the shock value from headwinds that have weighed on activity (including AI-driven BofAS+1 646 855 3081

disruption in software and higher oil prices) appear increasingly understood and, in our gabriel.angelini@bofa.com

view, beginning to fade. Ebrahim H. Poonawala

Research Analyst

BofAS

+1 646 743 0490M&A Monitor pointing to a pick-up

ebrahim.poonawala@bofa.com

Our proprietary M&A Monitor (tracks 11 factors) points to a supportive backdrop, with

64% of metrics trending stable-to-positive QoQ (see Exhibit 4). We expect the

divergence between large-cap and mid-market transactions to be a focal point of

earnings calls, with investors focused on whether sponsor and middle-market activity

can accelerate into 2H26 and 1H27. Worth noting, growth in large-cap and mid-market Exhibit 1: New vs old price objectives

transactions has been highly correlated over the past 20 years, and we expect the recent BofA price objectives

divergence to narrow over the next four quarters (see Exhibit 5).

Price Objective

Tempered valuations create opportunities New Old % Chg vs Prior