Weekly: PE settlement, Fert activity, Methanex idling plant, & EU tariff removal

Research evidence excerpt

Weekly: PE settlement, Fert activity, Methanex idling plant, & EU tariff removal

Accessible version

Chemicals

Weekly: PE settlement, Fert activity,

Methanex idling plant, & EU tariff removal

Industry Overview

Polyethylene settles 15cpp lower, sharp but expected 13 July 2026

This past week, CMA announced that June prices for Polyethylene (PE) settled 15cpp lower Equity

vs. May. We think the market expected June prices to decrease by 10 to 15cpp (we had United States

modeled -10cpp), so this does not come as a surprise. Spot and export markets continue Chemicals

to trade at a discount to even this new contract level, which will drive expectations of Matthew DeYoe, CFA

further weakness in July. Export markets have been challenged as customers destock Research Analyst

across the channel and North American producers face increasing competition from Asian BofAS+1 646 855 5746

suppliers and the return of Middle Eastern volumes. While there are currently some letters matthew.deyoe@bofa.com

for price increases in July, we believe the merits are lacking and expect further declines. Hakim Sanfo

Research Analyst

Additional closures of the Strait of Hormuz, as we saw this weekend, may stoke inflation BofAS

in global markets, which could ultimately reduce the absolute downside to US markets. +1 646 743 1557

hakim.sanfo@bofa.com

Nitrogen and Ammonia Lead Fertilizer Market Activity

US fertilizer markets strengthened modestly as summer fill programs wrapped up and Acronyms:

renewed Middle East tensions supported nitrogen pricing. Urea posted its first weekly

gain since mid-April (NOLA +$23/st w/w) while CF Industries' UAN fill established a new CMA: Chemical Market Analytics

seasonal benchmark and ammonium sulphate pricing remained volatile. Ammonia prices

CPP: Cents per pound