BP Plc (BP.L): Adjusting our estimates following the company’s 2Q26 trading update

Research evidence excerpt

BP Plc (BP.L): Adjusting our estimates following the company’s 2Q26 trading update

Equity Research

15 July 2026 | 3:29AM CEST

BP Plc (BP.L): Adjusting our estimates following the company’s 2Q26

trading update

Following yesterday’s trading update, we make adjustments to our 2Q26 estimates Michele Della Vigna, CFA

+39(02)8022-2242 |

ahead of BP’s 2Q26 results on Aug 4, reflecting higher oil trading and stronger michele.dellavigna@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan

refining margins while net debt is expected to decrease $2.8bn qoq at mid-point. branch

Overall in our forecast revisions, we increase our 2Q26 RC adjusted net income Quentin Marbach

estimate to $5,152mn from $4,049mn (+27%). +44(20)7774-7644quentin.marbach@gs.com|

Goldman Sachs International

By division, in Customers & Products we increase our RC operating profit forecast by Yulia Bocharnikova

$1,300mn to $4.5bn from $3.2bn. BP is guiding for slightly higher oil trading in 2Q26 +44(20)7051-6299yulia.bocharnikova@gs.com|

(vs exceptional oil trading in 1Q26) and stronger realized refining margins of Goldman Sachs International

Anastasia Shalaeva+$1.2-1.4bn qoq, partly offset by lower refining throughput of 1,445-1,475mb/d (vs +971(4)214-9908 |

1Q26 1,527mb/d) on a higher level of turnaround activity and lower Whiting volumes anastasia.shalaeva@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

following the April third-party event. We increase our Gas & Low Carbon Energy RC Will Chen

operating profit forecast by $200mn to $1.9bn from $1.7bn, reflecting broadly flat +971(4)214-9942 | will.y.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

gas trading qoq (vs average in 1Q26), slightly higher production qoq and a

+$0.5-0.7bn realizations tailwind qoq. In Oil Production and Operations, we