ADI Global Analyst Day: 5 Things We Learned

Research evidence excerpt

ADI Global Analyst Day: 5 Things We Learned

sensus data is provided by Refinitiv Estimates

** = Based on consensus methodology

Taken together, category leadership, scale and 40+ years of Pro relationships e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Quarterly EPS ($)

create a competitive moat; execution to sustain that moat remains key to re-

2026e 2026e 2027e 2027e

rating Quarter 2025 Prior Current Prior Current

Q1 0.63 - 0.65a - 0.81

Q2 0.66 - 0.73 - 0.83

For more detail on when-issued trading ranges and takeaways from REZI's Q3 0.89 - 0.86 - 0.83

Investor Day yesterday, please see: Resideo Technologies Inc: Execute, And They Q4 0.50 - 0.88 - 0.91

Should Come, and Resideo Technologies Inc: Resideo (P&S) Analyst Day: e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates, a = Actual Company reported data

Showcasing What The Market Has Overlooked.

1. Financial targets are in-line to above our model, with EBITDA growth well

ahead of revenue growth. Management formally set a 4–6% revenue CAGR target

through 2030, growing from $4.8B today to ~$6B, which is in-line with our model at

+5% growth. Further, management is targeting a >10% Adj. EBITDA CAGR, well

above our model assuming +6% growth, implying ADI takes Standalone Adj. EBITDA

from $295M to ~$500M – translating into ~200bps of EBITDA margin expansion

from 6.2% to >8%. Gross margin is targeted to expand 40–50bps, and cumulative

cash flow from operations is guided at $1B+ through FY2026–2030. The EBITDA

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

growth rate of >10% CAGR growing at roughly 1.7–2.5x the rate of revenue is key, companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

underpinned by a multi-lever framework: 1) mix shift toward Exclusive Brands and investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of