European Fund Manager Survey: Goldilocks regime drives a risk-on rotation

Research evidence excerpt

European Fund Manager Survey: Goldilocks regime drives a risk-on rotation

Accessible version

European Fund Manager Survey

Goldilocks regime drives a risk-on rotation

Goldilocks emerges, but geopolitics needs to align 14 July 2026

A net 37% of European investors expect a Goldilocks environment of robust growth and Equity Strategy

fading inflation over the next three months, making it dominant regime view for the first Europe

time since Oct ’24. Growth expectations for Europe have improved sharply, with 54%

expecting a stronger European economy over the coming twelve months, up from 11%

last month. Fiscal expansion has once again become the majority view why growth in

Europe should accelerate, while geopolitical de-escalation hopes have faded. Middle East

instability remains the dominant geopolitical concern (43%), and energy prices and

Inflation are considered both the biggest upside risk to global growth (if they decline)

and downside risk (if they rise) by a wide margin. A hawkish central-bank response to an

upside inflation surprise (31%) is the most likely catalyst for a market correction Paulina Strzelinska >>

Quant Strategist

European investors are bullish, global investors re-engage MLI+44 (UK)20 7996 7059

A net 54% of European investors expect European equities to rise over the next few paulina.strzelinska@bofa.com

months, up from a net 4% expecting declines in June. A net 91% see upside over the Andreas Bruckner >> Investment Strategist

coming twelve months, up from 71% last month, with the survey-implied expected MLI (UK)

return up to 6.3%, from 5.2% previously. Global investors have turned marginally positive +44andreas.bruckner@bofa.com20 7996 1306

on Europe in a global allocation context (a net 2% reported to be OW versus -15% last Sebastian Raedler >>