GS Monthly Medicare Enrollment Tracker - July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

GS Monthly Medicare Enrollment Tracker - July 2026

Goldman Sachs Americas Managed Care

our expectation for CVS to deliver material progress in its MA margin recovery plan in

2026. We expect CVS will provide a positive update that MA margins are improving at a

faster rate than previously anticipated on its 2Q26 earnings call.

The latest CMS data also continues to show HUM generating outsized growth across all

Medicare LOBs, and particularly in structurally more volatile MLR products such as

MA-PPO and stand-alone PDP. HUM’s PDP membership is growing ~9.4x faster than the

overall market and represents ~92% of total industry stand-alone PDP growth YTD in

2026. Meanwhile, HUM’s YTD MA-PPO expansion (~786k lives / +24.9% YTD growth)

contrasts with the overall MA-PPO market contracting by ~352k lives / (2.3)% YTD.

While we continue to expect HUM’s Medicare MLR trajectory in 2026 (compared to

2025) to underperform peers including UNH, CVS, and ELV due to its more aggressive

pricing strategy, we also expect downside risk to be mitigated by the favorable direction

of utilization trends at the MA sector level in 2026 on a YTD basis.

Summary Analysis from our July Medicare Tracker

The GS Monthly Medicare Enrollment Tracker provides our analysis of Medicare

enrollment data released monthly by CMS, covering individual, group, and special needs

plan enrollment in Medicare Advantage (MA), along with membership in stand-alone

Part D prescription drug plans (PDP). CMS released the July 2026 Medicare membership

data on 7/14/26.

MA Industry-Level Observations

July 2026 MA enrollment totaled 36.2 million, representing an increase of 1.4%

compared to December 2025. This trend reflects individual MA enrollment growth of

1.8% and a group MA decline of (0.5)% on a YTD basis.