2Q26 preview: ME revenue deferral weighs on H2 26, but 2027 upside from deepwater and US pricing keep us Buy rated on Vallourec

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 preview: ME revenue deferral weighs on H2 26, but 2027 upside from deepwater and US pricing keep us Buy rated on Vallourec

Equity Research

14 July 2026 | 10:22PM CEST

EUROPE OIL SERVICES

2Q26 preview: ME revenue deferral weighs on H2 26, but 2027 upside

from deepwater and US pricing keep us Buy rated on Vallourec

In this note, we revisit the key investor debates for OCTG producers Tenaris and Michele Della Vigna, CFA

+39(02)8022-2242 |

Vallourec ahead of 2Q26 results: (1) the pace of US OCTG price recovery, (2) the michele.dellavigna@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Milan

impact of Middle East disruptions on 2026-27 earnings, and (3) implications of a branch

global Oil & Gas capex recovery for OCTG demand and sector valuations. We also Yulia Bocharnikova

update estimates and price targets for both companies. +44(20)7051-6299yulia.bocharnikova@gs.com|

Goldman Sachs International

2Q26 should mark the earnings trough, although renewed Strait of Hormuz Anastasia Shalaeva

disruptions presents downside risks for 2H26 results. We expect shipping delays, +971(4)214-9908anastasia.shalaeva@gs.com|

order postponements and higher logistics costs to weigh on 2Q results, while recent Goldman Sachs International

US-Iran tensions raise the risk that Middle East disruption extends into 2H26. As a Quentin+44(20)7774-7644Marbach|

result, we lower our 2H26 estimates and shift part of the expected recovery from 3Q quentin.marbach@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

into 4Q, leaving us 3% below Visible Alpha Consensus Data on Tenaris and 10% Will Chen

below on Vallourec 2H EBITDA. +971(4)214-9942 | will.y.chen@gs.com Goldman Sachs International

Middle East activity remains fundamentally healthy despite recent disruptions,

supporting stronger OCTG demand into 2027.