SAP: The end of deadline-driven migration

Research evidence excerpt

SAP: The end of deadline-driven migration

Richard Nguyen +33 1 42 13 54 22 richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com 14 July 2026

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INVESTMENT SUMMARY

The European Commission’s ruling on SAP’s maintenance and support practices fundamentally changes the economics of the ECC-

to-S/4 migration debate and strengthens our conviction in the key investment issue facing SAP: migration is becoming increasingly

customer-driven rather than vendor-driven. While the market continues to focus on SAP’s cloud growth trajectory and 2030

roadmap, our analysis highlights a more important shift - the transfer of negotiating leverage from SAP to its customers. Drawing

on the Commission’s legally binding commitments, industry feedback, and our operational analysis of S/4 migration progress,

we conclude that the ruling does not threaten SAP’s strategic position but creates new questions around migration timing, cloud

economics, and maintenance monetization. We maintain our Outperform rating, although investors should increasingly evaluate

migration quality and economic capture rather than migration volume alone.

The ruling materially increases customer flexibility and negotiating power. Customers can now segment SAP environments

into separate commercial installations, selectively use third-party support providers, terminate maintenance contracts under a

broader set of circumstances, and avoid many of the historical penalties associated with leaving SAP support. These changes

make alternatives to SAP support more credible and give customers greater leverage in commercial negotiations at a time when

many organizations are already reassessing ERP spending priorities.

Maintenance switching costs have fallen and maintenance is becoming less of a one-way decision. Historically,