SAP: 2Q26 preview - S/4 migration reality vs AI narrative

Research evidence excerpt

SAP: 2Q26 preview - S/4 migration reality vs AI narrative

Richard Nguyen +33 1 42 13 54 22 richard.nguyen@bernsteinsg.com 13 July 2026

Bull summary: SAP's unique access to enterprise process data, combined with embedded AI and enhanced data capabilities,

could make AI a meaningful driver of cloud migration, platform adoption, pricing power and long-term revenue growth.

EXHIBIT 3: SAP: Business AI platform

Source: SAP

Bear case: AI remains more narrative than revenue driver

Despite SAP's extensive AI messaging, investors remain concerned that AI-native and more modular competitors could continue

to gain traction, particularly if SAP's AI adoption depends on prerequisites such as cloud migration, clean-core transformations

and Business Technology Platform deployment.

Adoption trends remain mixed. The German user group DSAG survey data (link) suggests that a significant share of German-

speaking customers using AI productively rely on non-SAP solutions, often citing complex licensing structures and fragmented

IT landscapes as barriers to SAP AI adoption.

A key concern is that AI monetization remains difficult to assess. SAP provides limited quantitative disclosure on AI-related

revenue, pricing uplift, attach rates or incremental ACV (annaul contract value) generated by AI. Consequently, investors still rely

heavily on management commentary rather than measurable KPIs.

The Sapphire announcements generated significant interest around SAP's agentic AI strategy and commercial model, but

investors are now looking for evidence that this translates into tangible demand. If 2Q26 results do not show improving bookings,

backlog growth, large transformation deals or new AI-specific commercial metrics, investors may continue to view AI primarily as