Stepping on the (Nat) Gas

Research evidence excerpt

Stepping on the (Nat) Gas

FICC Research

Credit Research

14 July 2026

HY E&P

As all eyes remain focused on oil, we think its a good time to

circle back on some gas-biased names based on pricing post

2026. We initiate coverage of INFAR, KTGLLC and BKVCOR at Paul Chambers +1 713 236 2455

OW and maintain UW on RRC and MW on ASCRES. We paul.d.chambers@barclays.com

upgrade CRK to MW after extended underperformance BCI, US

We appreciate your 5-star vote in the 2026 Global Fixed-Income Research Survey in the High

Yield Energy category. View our Analysts » Vote 5 Stars for Barclays »

We see the natural gas producers in HY becoming increasingly important in the life cycle of

growing power and LNG inputs. And while 2026 pricing is less inspiring, with front month

recently trading below $3/mmbtu, 2027 futures are around $3.35/mmbtu (or $3.47/mcf) and

2028 futures are $3.60/mmbtu ($3.74/mcf), supporting more of a growth market and

subsequent stronger FCF. We think buying natural gas credits while natural gas prices are

trending at the lower end of our estimated multi-year range can be a useful endeavor for

credit investors. In this report we take a look at six HY E&P gas producers, including three

initiations at Overweight. Headwinds to our Overweight ratings would be the impacts from

weather (El Niño historically has hurt demand), as well as the dramatic ramp in Permian gas

production as increased infrastructure comes online in 2H26 (increased supply). This is offset by

increased demand from AI infrastructure and hyperscale data centers, which is emerging as the

single most important driver of power and gas demand growth, as well as the increased call on

gas supply from a growing LNG build-out over the next few years. On power demand growth, the