Consumer spending update: Large bank earnings point to accelerating consumer spend and should be supportive for 2Q payments earnings

Research evidence excerpt

Consumer spending update: Large bank earnings point to accelerating consumer spend and should be supportive for 2Q payments earnings

Equity Research

14 July 2026 | 9:17AM EDT

AMERICAS PAYMENT TECHNOLOGY

Consumer spending update: Large bank earnings point to accelerating

consumer spend and should be supportive for 2Q payments earnings

Overall, spend volumes are consistent with the views we shared in our 2Q26 Will Nance

+1(212)357-7438 | will.nance@gs.com

payments preview released last week, and show spend volumes accelerating Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

~160bps sequentially. Debit spend in particular accelerated 177bps, likely benefiting Jack Evans

from higher gas spend. Recent data from BAC also suggests that spending excluding +1(212)357-3560Goldman Sachs & Co.| jack.evans@gs.comLLC

gas also accelerated throughout the quarter. Overall, we view the strong spending Chandru Ravikumar

data as supported by 1) inflationary tailwinds (including gas), 2) easier comps as we +1(212)934-7681chandru.ravikumar@gs.com|

lap tariff related disruption a year ago, and 3) a resilient employment and wage Goldman Sachs India SPL

growth picture with tax refund related benefits offsetting fuel price shocks.

Spending trends

n Networks: We believe Bank results suggest a sequential acceleration in payment

volumes.

o Visa (V): The street currently expects 7.3% C2Q26 U.S. debit volume

growth compared to JPM/WFC/BAC growth of 10.5/8.4/10.0%

(160-200bps accel vs V street expectations of a 61bps accel). Additionally,

street U.S. credit expectations are for growth in the ~9% range, compared

to JPM/WFC/BAC/C growth of 9.7/11.5/7.4/12.1%, respectively (or 9.4%

weighted average for the banks vs. 8.1% in 1Q). Further, bank credit

spending volumes also imply 100-250bps qoq sequential acceleration