Booming yet bifurcated exports

Research evidence excerpt

Booming yet bifurcated exports

Barclays | China

We believe this K-shaped export recovery is contributing to a growing divergence across

industries: rising profits and stronger pricing power in high-tech sectors, such as

semiconductors and electronics, versus declining profits and persistent price pressures in

traditional industries, including textiles and household consumer goods. This trend has been

clearly reflected in the recent manufacturing PMI data (see: China: Modest improvement with

sectoral divergence, 30 June 2026).

Moreover, as the strength in headline exports is largely concentrated in capital-intensive

industries, we believe the positive spillover from exports to the domestic labor market has been

limited. As a result, the export boom is unlikely to translate into a rapid recovery in household

income or consumption, which explains the continued softness in domestic demand.

• On AI-related products, exports of semiconductors (~8% of China's total exports YTD) rose

122% y/y in June, while exports of automatic data processing equipment and related parts

(~7% of China's total exports YTD) increased 66%. We estimate that these two categories

together contributed ~8pp to headline exports growth, which comprises over 40% of total

exports growth of 17.6% YTD. For context, China accounts for over 30% of global export value

in critical AI-related products, well above Korea (~6%), - including electronic chips,

computers, semiconductor components, electrical boards and chip-making equipment.

• Turning to green-tech, the ongoing Middle East tension and renewed energy supply shock is

fuelling Chinese growth by boosting demand for its renewable energy-tech exports. YTD

exports data showed strong, double-digit growth in these segments, including EVs (+71%