Global Macro Commentary | North America July 14: Softer CPI, Weaker Dollar

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Commentary | North America July 14: Softer CPI, Weaker Dollar

Update

July 14, 2026 10:32 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

July 14: Softer CPI, Weaker Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Dollar Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

Softer-than-expected US inflation sparked a broad risk rally;

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

markets priced out near-term Fed tightening; front-end Treasury Gek Teng Khoo

yields fell, the dollar weakened; higher oil prices limited gains in StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

cyclicals as geopolitical tensions persisted; DXY at 100.92 (-

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

0.3%); US 10y at 4.59 (-3.4bp). Hiromu Uezato

A broad downside surprise in US inflation reduced near-term Fed tightening Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

expectations, supporting front-end duration, weakening the dollar and lifting Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

risk assets despite renewed geopolitical pressure on energy prices. Nimish M Prabhune

The 2026 Extel Global Fixed Income Poll is now open and your participation Nimish.Prabhune@morganstanley.com +91 22 6996-1862

matters a great deal to us. If you have found our research helpful, we would greatly Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

appreciate your support in the following categories (please click here to request Jasper Knyphausen

your ballot): Jasper.Knyphausen@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-2185

• Global > Macro Strategy

• Global > Economics

• USA > Cross-Asset Strategy

• Developed Europe > Cross-Asset Strategy

• Asia > Cross-Asset Strategy

Developed Markets