Key debates before the numbers: cyclical air-pocket or a structural reset?

Research evidence excerpt

Key debates before the numbers: cyclical air-pocket or a structural reset?

Idea

July 14, 2026 03:38 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MLuxury | Europe Natasha Bonnet

Equity Analyst

Key debates before the Natasha.Bonnet@morganstanley.comEdouard Aubin +44 20 7677-5723

Edouard.Aubin@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-3160

numbers: cyclical air-pocket or a Grace Smalley, CFA

Grace.Smalley@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-9629

structural reset? Cedric Norest

Research Associate

Cedric.Norest@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1462

Ahead of luxury results season kicking off this week, we frame

Brands

the key investor debate facing the sector over the next 12-24 Europe

months: is the slowdown of the past two years a cyclical air- Industry View In-Line

pocket that normalises as comps ease and China stabilises, or is

the sector undergoing a genuine structural reset in its growth

drivers? China remains the single biggest swing factor either

way.

Cyclical or a structural reset? The bull case rests on the view that 2022-2025 was

a demand air-pocket (i.e. a hangover from a pandemic-era pull-forward) that is now

largely lapped, with easier comps, a slow China inflection, fresh creative energy

setting up a re-acceleration into 2026/2027 and a wave of AI wealth creation, which

should be supportive for luxury spend. The bear case is that the sector triggered its

own slowdown by pushing pricing beyond what its (increasingly democratized)

customer base could absorb, and that the resulting effects (fewer active customers,

a larger and more acceptable second-hand/dupe market, and importantly ongoing

"luxury fatigue") will not simply unwind as comps ease. On this view, growth is

becoming structurally more reliant on a narrower, wealthier cohort rather than the