The proof is in the earnings: Bull case for equities increasingly rests on earnings, yet positive outcomes are already priced in, setting a high hurdle to beat; with earnings set to drive further dispersion and idiosyncratic risk dominating, we screen for the most attractive earnings

Research evidence excerpt

The proof is in the earnings: Bull case for equities increasingly rests on earnings, yet positive outcomes are already priced in, setting a high hurdle to beat; with earnings set to drive further dispersion and idiosyncratic risk dominating, we screen for the most attractive earnings

Equity Research

Equity Derivatives Strategy

14 July 2026

The Global Volatility Pulse

The proof is in the earnings

Bull case for equities increasingly rests on earnings, yet

positive outcomes are already priced in, setting a high hurdle

to beat; with earnings set to drive further dispersion and Global Equity Derivatives Strategy

idiosyncratic risk dominating, we screen for the most Anshul+44 (0) 20Gupta7773 0430

anshul.gupta@barclays.comattractive earnings opportunities on both sides of the

Atlantic. Barclays, UK

Stefano Pascale

+1 212 526 7983

Earnings vol Is rich; now earnings need to do the work: Earnings implied moves remain stefano.pascale@barclays.com

elevated across the Atlantic as earnings increasingly need to carry the equity bull case. In the BCI, US

US, the focus is on whether Tech can continue to deliver upgrades. In Europe, the question is Shobhit Mishra

whether improving fundamentals can validate the recent broadening. Indeed, implied earnings +91 (0)22 6175 3536

moves remain rich relative to both realized moves and prevailing volatility regimes, reflecting an shobhit.mishra@barclays.com

exceptionally high idiosyncratic risk backdrop, as evidenced by near-record high single stock vs Barclays, UK

index vol and correlations at fresh all-time lows. US screen: we highlight the top ten names in Zhiyuan Fan

the Barclays AI Disruptors universe with the cheapest implied earnings moves, including, for +1 212 526 5530

instance, Medtronic, FMC, and Digitalocean.