What to Expect From 2Q26 Earnings Season

Research evidence excerpt

What to Expect From 2Q26 Earnings Season

Equity Research

13 July 2026 | 10:15PM BRT

BRAZIL STEEL

Following an upward trend for domestic steel prices in Brazil, recent feedback point Marcio Farid

+55(11)3371-4580 |

to some price accommodation, with the third flat steel hike not being implemented marcio.farid@gs.com

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

and with long steel price hike attempt being only partially implemented.

Emerson Vieira

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Flat steels: price support came from the combination of trade protectionism and emerson.vieira@gs.com

rising costs, but early buying, excess supply chain inventories, cost easing and weak

Henrique Marquesend demand limited further hikes. We believe that a continuation of low imports that +55(11)3371-0778 |

started in 1Q should tighten the market further in late 2026 (channel checks suggest henrique.marques@gs.comGoldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

importers are skeptical about placing new orders due to macro, FX and tariffs

uncertainties). We would note, however, that Vietnam imports were elevated in June

and are a trend to watch.

Long steel: Domestic competition remain elevated and recent cost easing have

lowered price support, we don’t anticipate significant changes into year-end.

We update our models ahead of 2Q26 results and mark to market FX and

commodities prices. Overall, we expect 2Q26 results to be largely supported by

higher steel prices, partially offset by cost pressure coming from raw materials and

energy (with some carry into 3Q). For companies with mining exposure, despite

flattish benchmark prices, higher costs, particularly related to oil (e.g. diesel and

freight) should weigh on earnings.

We reiterate our preference for Ternium and Gerdau, given their exposure to a