LLY: GLP-1 Market Model two ways... digging into TRx channel dynamics & longer-term TAM penetration

Research evidence excerpt

LLY: GLP-1 Market Model two ways... digging into TRx channel dynamics & longer-term TAM penetration

Courtney Breen +1 917 344 8407 courtney.breen@bernsteinsg.com 14 July 2026

DETAILS

US GLP-1 MARKET MODEL UPDATE: LILLY CAPTURES THE MAJORITY OF A ~$100B US OPPORTUNITY

We update our GLP-1 market model, which now incorporates both TRx-based revenue estimates and patient-level

adoption assumptions across Type 2 diabetes and obesity/overweight. The revised framework captures epidemiology,

class penetration, persistence/adherence, oral vs injectable mix, payer/access dynamics, product-level share, and net pricing

assumptions.

UPDATE SUMMARY

• We model the US GLP-1 market reaching ~$102B in 2031, with Lilly capturing the majority of value at approximately

~70% share. While we expect Mounjaro and Zepbound to remain the primary revenue drivers, accounting for approximately

63% of Lilly's GLP-1 revenue in 2031, newer products (including Foundayo, retatrutide, and eloralintide) are projected to

become increasingly meaningful contributors, collectively representing the remaining 37% of revenue.

• Class penetration continues to deepen through 2030s. We estimate Type 2 diabetes GLP-1 penetration reaches ~44%

by 2031, while obesity/overweight penetration rises materially to ~23% but remains lower than T2D, reflecting access,

reimbursement, persistence, and affordability constraints.

• Injectables remain the majority of market value, but oral GLP-1s become increasingly relevant post-2026/2027 as

Foundayo and Wegovy pill scale. The model still assumes injectables represent the majority of value through the late 2030s

(~79%+ in 2030+), with oral share rising and peaking to around 22% in 2029.

WHAT CHANGED VS OUR PRIOR MODEL?