Eli Lilly (LLY.N) 2Q26 EPS call takeaways: Impressive growth with more engines coming online

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05 Aug 2026 12:15:06 ET │ 11 pages

Eli Lilly (LLY.N)

2Q26 EPS call takeaways: Impressive growth with more engines coming

online

CITI'S TAKE

Lilly had another exceptional quarter, with revenues ($23B; +$2.4B vs. VA

cons) and non-GAAP diluted EPS ($8.38/sh; +$1.70/sh) driving raised

full-year guidance (revs: +$2.5B at midpoint). Shares are responding

positively (+3%; DRG: +1.4%; S&P 500: +0.2%), as Mounjaro (+91% y/y)

and Zepbound (+46%) demonstrate injectable demand remains robust

even with oral entrants. Though Foundayo sales ($98M) were uninspiring,

much broader access awaits in 2H26 as physician awareness and

consumer promotion expand, though we continue to view 2027 as the

larger commercial year. De minimis generic semaglutide impact OUS and

competitor supply constraints further highlight Lilly’s manufacturing and

CapEx advantage. Together with +121% y/y growth across key ex-incretins

products and retatrutide’s (Citi peak est: $10B) emergence as a third major

incretin with broad indication potential, these strengths reinforce Lilly as

the top grower (3-year revs CAGR: +20% vs. +5% peers) and our favorite

among large Biopharmas. Maintain Buy and $1,600 TP.

Injectable demand remains robust as orals expand the market — Tirzepatide

accounts for roughly 3/4 of new incretin starts, supporting coexistence between oral

and injectable therapies. Cash pay also remains important, representing >55% of

Zepbound prescriptions. The Medicare bridge program expands access to 35% more

Americans, with 60–70% of participants new to incretins and roughly 80% choosing

injectables, reinforcing the unmet demand created by prior coverage limitations.

CVS template access for tirzepatide beginning in 4Q26 will lower realized pricing, an

impact already embedded in updated guidance and expected to be more than offset

by incremental volume.

Buy

Price (04 Aug 26 16:00)

US$1,115.68

Target price

US$1,600.00

Expected share price

43.4%

return

Expected dividend yield

0.6%

Expected total return

44.0%

Market Cap

US$1,050,682M

Geoff Meacham, Ph.D.AC

Jarwei Fang

Nishant Gandhi, Ph.D.

Mary Kate Davis

Foundayo momentum is beginning to inflect — The prescriber base increased to

…