Global Markets Daily: Mixed Signals for US Traded Inflation

Research evidence excerpt

Global Markets Daily: Mixed Signals for US Traded Inflation

Economics Research

13 July 2026 | 4:20PM EDT

n US traded inflation has repriced significantly since the peak in oil prices. This has Isabella Rosenberg

+1(212)357-7628 |

been primarily led by the front end of the inflation curve, but farther forwards isabella.rosenberg@gs.com

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

have declined as well.

n We construct a simple macro framework for estimating fair value across the

inflation swap curve, relying primarily on survey inputs. We draw on economic

literature showing that survey-based measures can predict future inflation more

accurately than market-based measures and find similar evidence that surveys

add predictive power for inflation swap returns over our sample period.

n Our framework suggests that near-term inflation pricing is broadly consistent

with macro drivers, but that longer-term inflation forwards look cheap to our

model and have underperformed recently. We suspect this reflects the market’s

perception of reduced risk that the Fed falls “behind the curve” following the

June FOMC, with choppier price action in risk assets adding marginal pressure as

well.

n Despite slightly cheap longer-term forwards, we do not think that traded

inflation is a compelling long right now. The market is pricing a higher inflation

path than our economists forecast over a 12-to-18 month forward horizon. An

assumed hawkish Fed reaction function also likely means near-term inflation

upside should be accompanied by higher real rate expectations rather than

inflation risk further out the curve. The clearer case for longs in our view is as a

hedge against the Fed following a more dovish reaction function or a

re-escalation of the conflict that revives the upside risks to inflation.