LATAM Today: July 13, 2026

Research evidence excerpt

LATAM Today: July 13, 2026

Economics Research

13 July 2026 | 7:58AM EDT

RamosARGENTINA Alberto | +1(212)357-5768

alberto.ramos@gs.com

Data This Week: Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

ArmellaTuesday: Consumer Price Index (June); we forecast a 1.9% mom increase in Sergio | +1(212)357-9077

consumer prices in June, falling back below the two percent handle for the first time sergio.armella@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

in ten months. Under our forecast, inflation continued its downward trend after Santiago Tellez

easing in April and May, following a period of rising monthly readings that began in +1(212)855-0367 |

santiago.tellez@gs.com

May 2025. Our sequential forecast is consistent with annual inflation rising from Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

33.2% in May to 33.6% in June.

Thursday: Budget Balance (June); we expect the June budget balance to continue

the government’s policy of fiscal restraint and be consistent with a zero balance

(primary surplus) throughout 2026. In general, disciplined spending has offset softer

government revenues so far in 2026. As of May, the cumulative primary surplus

reached 0.7% of GDP, while the overall balance surplus stood at 0.2% of GDP. Total

government revenues have fallen 4.3% in real terms, and total expenditure is down

by a somewhat lower 3.1% year-to-date.

SA

BRAZIL

Further Deterioration of 2027 Inflation Expectations; Stable End-2026/27/28 Selic

Rate; Softer 2027 Growth

Bottom Line: Inflation expectations improved for 2026 (-14bp to 5.16%) but deteriorated

further for the policy relevant 2027 (+2bp to 4.20%; eighth consecutive weekly increase).

Expectations for 2028/29 are tracking at 3.70%/3.50%; above the 3.0% target. The

median expectation for the Selic rate for end-2026/27/28 remained at

14.00%/12.00%/10.50%.