Antero Midstream Corp. (AM): 2Q26 Preview: Expect In-Line Quarter; Focus on 2027+ Growth and Veolia Update

Research evidence excerpt

Antero Midstream Corp. (AM): 2Q26 Preview: Expect In-Line Quarter; Focus on 2027+ Growth and Veolia Update

Goldman Sachs Antero Midstream Corp. (AM)

n Water likely flat to up slightly QoQ. We expect water EBITDA to be up slightly QoQ

to $30m vs 1Q26 of $29m on stronger volumes QoQ, but down vs our prior estimate

of $33m on crew rotation timing. We expect a step up in water volumes in 2H26, as a

crew currently on HG acreage rotates back to AM’s legacy acreage and another step

up in 2027 as the HG water system is integrated.

n JV distributions likely flat to up slightly QoQ. We expect JV distributions to be up

slightly QoQ at $37m vs 1Q26 of $36m and our prior estimate of $37m.

Key Focus Areas

Watching AR’s base case production growth outlook. We will look for confidence in

AR’s base case production growth plan starting in 2027 to support high-single-digit

EBITDA growth at AM through the medium-term. Recall, AR’s growth plan requires a

$3+/mmbtu Henry Hub environment 2027+, and management has previously noted the

potential to grow production in excess of what the base case represents, as we

discussed in more detail here. Elsewhere, AR recently rolled out a multi-year cost

reduction initiative ($300m of margin enhancement in 2028) - key will be potential

impacts net to AM from serving a lower-cost producer over time.

Watching updates on in-basin and inorganic opportunities. We will look for

qualitative details on how in-basin demand opportunities are progressing (both to serve

AR and/or third parties), particularly on Monarch, a 2 GW data center campus in West

Virginia, where turbines are being delivered from Caterpillar and gas

procurement/supply counterparty discussions are underway. Recall, while no formal