US Consumer Finance: Q2 2026 to show good credit/resilient growth: upgrade Capital One to Buy

Research evidence excerpt

US Consumer Finance: Q2 2026 to show good credit/resilient growth: upgrade Capital One to Buy

12 July 2026

US Consumer Finance EquitiesConsumer Finance

Q2 2026 to show good credit/resilient growth:

upgrade Capital One to Buy United States

◆ Upgrade Capital One to Buy: underperformance looks Saul Martinez

overdone; better earnings momentum in 2027e/2028e Head of US Financials Research HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

◆ Synchrony (Buy) remains preferred choice in consumer saul1.martinez@us.hsbc.com+1 212 525 6874

finance: good credit, better growth; valuation compelling Calvin Carlo*

Analyst, US Financials

◆ Another solid print as billed business growth impresses HSBC Mexico, S.A., Institucion de Banca Multiple, Grupo

Financiero HSBC

calvin.carlo@hsbc.com.mx

Upgrade Capital One to Buy – underperformance now looks overly discounted. +52 55 8551 5022

Capital One shares are down 17% YTD, reflecting macroeconomic and policy uncertainty Dmitriy Leskin

and a lack of clarity around the post-Discover path to increased earnings power. We think HSBC Securities (USA) Inc.

that caution is now more than reflected in the share price. With the bulk of Discover dmitriy.leskin@us.hsbc.com

+1 212 525 4110

technology conversions weighted to later 2026–2027, we see a clearer runway to

accelerating profitability as integration milestones are hit—particularly as the USD1.5bn of * Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is

expected cost savings are largely realised after most integrations are finalized in 2027. not registered/ qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations

We also expect loan growth to improve as Discover’s book transitions to Capital One’s

origination platform (by end-Q3 2026). Our forecasts point to a step-up in earnings