AstraZeneca (AZN LN): Downgrade to Hold: Tough path ahead

Research evidence excerpt

AstraZeneca (AZN LN): Downgrade to Hold: Tough path ahead

13 July 2026

AstraZeneca (AZN LN) EquitiesPharmaceuticals

Downgrade to Hold: Tough path ahead United Kingdom

◆ Wainua setback impairs our bull case, given the more difficult DOWNGRADE TO HOLD

catalyst path ahead

TARGET PRICE (GBPp) PREVIOUS TARGET (GBPp)

◆ If three trials fail in a sequence, the widely held view of

13,750 16,500 Astra’s market-leading R&D platform might lose its shine

◆ Downgrade to Hold from Buy; cut target price to 13,750p SHARE PRICE (GBPp) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

(from 16,500p) 13,354 +3.0%

(as of 09 Jul 2026)

The debate: Wainua (CARDIO‑TTR) Phase 3 failed to meet its primary composite MARKET DATA

Market cap (GBPm) 2,07,124 Free float 96%

endpoint. Success in this trial underpinned our bull case, and the outcome is worse Market cap (USDm) 2,77,722 BBG AZN LN

than our or management expectations. Wainua was a >USD5bn market opportunity 3m ADTV (USDm) 396 RIC AZN.L

for the company (consensus PoS 74%, peak sales of USD3.6bn vs HSBC PoS 75%, FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (USD)

peak sales of USD5bn). Investors are wondering what this means for the stock. Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

HSBC EPS 9.09 10.01 11.71 12.57

Troubled catalyst path: We have lost conviction in our Buy case on AstraZeneca for HSBC EPS (prev) 9.09 9.99 11.70 12.61

Change (%) 0.0 0.3 0.1 -0.3

three key reasons. First, although we think the path to >USD80bn peak revenues in Consensus EPS 9.12 10.25 11.55 12.73

2030e still exists, it is reliant on more volatile catalysts. The catalysts that could start PE (x) 19.7 17.9 15.3 14.2

Dividend yield (%) 1.8 1.8 2.4 2.5

de-risking the path (oPCSK9, dapa combinations, oncology bispecifics) are likely to EV/EBITDA (x) 15.3 12.9 11.0 9.9

read out in 2027. ROE (%) 31.8 29.9 30.4 28.2