OMV AG (OMV AV): Reduce: 2Q26 preview – Downstream strength offsets Upstream weakness

Research evidence excerpt

OMV AG (OMV AV): Reduce: 2Q26 preview – Downstream strength offsets Upstream weakness

13 July 2026

OMV AG (OMV AV) EquitiesOil & Gas

Reduce: 2Q26 preview – Downstream strength offsets

Upstream weakness Austria

◆ Strong production masks weaker sales volumes; the latter

MAINTAIN REDUCE

will weigh on Upstream’s earnings

◆ However, robust refining and petchem margins to lift results TARGET PRICE (EUR) PREVIOUS TARGET (EUR)

53.00 51.00

◆ Maintain Reduce rating, raise TP to EUR53 (from EUR51)

SHARE PRICE (EUR) UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE

OMV is scheduled to report 2Q26 results on Friday 31 July 2026. 59.90 -11.5%

2Q26 preview: OMV’s 2Q update was skewed positively, in our view, with strength in (as of 10 Jul 2026)

refining and petchem margins offsetting weaker-than-expected Upstream sales volumes.

MARKET DATA

Upstream production of 291kboed was 10% above Visible Alpha estimates of 265kboed, Market cap (EURm) 19,604 Free float 44%

Market cap (USDm) 22,407 BBG OMV AV

however, earnings will be EUR120-150m lower than implied by the production volume as 3m ADTV (USDm) 26 RIC OMVV.VI

actual sales volumes were impacted by the Middle East conflict. Sales volumes dropped

FINANCIALS AND RATIOS (EUR)

further to 242kboed (from 252kboed q/q), negating the stronger production from an Year to 12/2025a 12/2026e 12/2027e 12/2028e

earnings perspective. In Fuels & Feedstock, the refining margin of USD20.3/bl was 6% HSBC EPS 3.11 10.51 4.93 4.47

HSBC EPS (prev) 3.11 10.11 5.41 5.51

above VA consensus with the utilisation rate in line at 90%. Fuel sales volumes were 4% Change (%) 0.0 3.9 -8.9 -18.9

above of consensus at 4.1mt. We expect resilient earnings improvement q/q with better Consensus EPS 5.81 7.96 7.04 6.56

PE (x) 19.3 5.7 12.1 13.4

refining, stronger marketing, and no one-off losses.