GS U.S. Healthcare Quarterly Utilization Diagnostic: 2Q26 Edition

Research evidence excerpt

GS U.S. Healthcare Quarterly Utilization Diagnostic: 2Q26 Edition

Goldman Sachs Americas Healthcare

stabilization, albeit still elevated (favor UNH, CVS, ALHC on MA cyclical recovery thesis);

have the potential to put marginal pressure on Hospital volumes and margins (prefer

HCA and THC, with estimate revision risk skewed to the downside for the hospital group);

and are likely to drive greater selectivity in MedTech with a bias toward pure play growth

(i.e. EW, DXCM, PODD, GKOS) and avoiding stocks that are overly dependent on macro.

Within this report, we include analysis of a range of discrete data elements, including:

n GS Hospital Foot traffic tracker

n Kaufman Hall’s Hospital Flash Report

n Strata’s Monthly Healthcare Industry Financial Benchmark

n GS MedTech Surgery Day Analysis

n BLS labor trends

n Takeaways from 2Q26 Hospital Due Diligence Day (link)

n PwC 2027 cost trend report

We also identify and catalog utilization callouts from companies and the corresponding

takeaways by segment:

n Managed Care: We believe overall utilization trends could support EPS upside in

2Q26 for the MCOs, with consolidated MLRs tracking favorable to guidance. Based

on our research process, we anticipate the strongest underwriting performance

likely in Medicare Advantage; our 2Q checks repeatedly pointed to broad-based

moderated utilization across inpatient, outpatient, and supplemental benefit

categories. From a stock perspective, our tracking of 2Q utilization reinforces our

preference for UNH, CVS, and ALHC, fully corresponding with our coverage initiation

thesis from October 2025 calling for the MA underwriting cycle to inflect to the

margin recovery phase beginning in 1Q26. In the Commercial employer-sponsored