Model Update – PT Up to AED4.7: Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

Model Update – PT Up to AED4.7: Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution | Europe

Update

July 13, 2026 11:01 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MAbu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution | Europe Ricardo Rezende, CFA

Equity Analyst

Model Update – PT Up to Ricardo.Rezende@morganstanley.comGiulia Faro +44 20 7677-9886

Research Associate

Giulia.Faro@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-7581

AED4.7 Sylvia C Richards

What’s Changed Sylvia.Richards@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3354

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution (ADNOCDIST.AD) From To Abu Dhabi National Oil Co Distribution (ADNOCDIST.AD,

Price Target AED 4.40 AED 4.70

ADNOCDIS DH)

EEMEA - Oil & Gas | United Arab Emirates

We raise our 2Q/FY26 earnings estimates as ~AED580m of

Stock Rating Overweight

inventory gains lift reported EBITDA and net income, while Industry View No Rating

Price target AED 4.70

underlying profitability remains broadly unchanged. We raise our Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) AED 4.00

TP to AED4.7 from AED4.4 and retain our Overweight rating. 52-WeekMkt cap, currRange(mn) AEDAED4.18-49,9923.47

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)* AED 4,523

EV, curr (mn)* AED 54,775

Key Takeaways

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

2Q reported earnings should benefit from ~AED580m of inventory gains, while Fiscal Year Ending 12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

underlying EBITDA remains broadly flat y/y. Sales / Revenue (AED 35,897 36,499 33,083 36,917

mn)**

Fuel volumes should remain broadly flat, with aviation growing double digits on EBITDA (AED mn)** 4,282 4,977 4,293 4,501

the back of the still ongoing Middle East geopolitical dynamics. EBIT (AED mn)** 3,506 4,187 3,468 3,648

EPS (AED)** 0.22 0.28 0.22 0.24

FY26e net income supports dividends modestly above the $700mn minimum. Prior EPS (AED)** - 0.22 0.21 0.22