El Niño Risks Rising into 2026/27: Where the Risk Sits, and How to Play It — a Global Cross-Sector Guide.

Research evidence excerpt

El Niño Risks Rising into 2026/27: Where the Risk Sits, and How to Play It — a Global Cross-Sector Guide.

Global Insight

July 13, 2026 10:19 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+MGlobal Agribusiness Julia Rizzo

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

El Niño Risks Rising into Julia.Rizzo@morganstanley.comJulia Habermann +55 11 3048-6114

Research Associate

Julia.Habermann.Oliveira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6096

2026/27: Where the Risk Sits, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Jorge Kuri

Equity Analystand How to Play It — a Global Jorge.Kuri@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-6341

Morgan Stanley Europe S.E.+Cross-Sector Guide. Jens Eisenschmidt

Chief Europe Economist

El Niño is no longer a weather story — it's a positioning Jens.Eisenschmidt@morganstanley.com +49 69-21662817

question. With an 81% chance of a very strong event now Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Sarah Simon

confirmed, this report puts commodities, macro, and equities Equity Analyst

side by side across every region El Niño touches, so investors can Sarah.Simon@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-6064

see where the risk sits before it shows up in earnings. Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Simeon Gutman, CFA

El Niño has crossed a new threshold. NOAA's July 9 update confirms the event is Equity Analyst

Simeon.Gutman@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3920

strengthening, not fading — Niño-3.4 at +1.2°C, with the eastern Pacific running

Stephen C Byrd

+2.7°C. NOAA now puts the odds of a very strong El Niño in 4Q26 at 81%, which Equity Analyst

would rank among the largest events since 1950, and estimates a 97% chance that Stephen.Byrd@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3865

Vincent Andrews

conditions persist through early spring 2027. Equity Analyst

Vincent.Andrews@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3293