July 13: Oil and Hawkish Fed Repricing

Research evidence excerpt

July 13: Oil and Hawkish Fed Repricing

Update

July 13, 2026 10:08 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMGlobal Macro Commentary | North America Molly Nickolin

Strategist

July 13: Oil and Hawkish Fed Molly.Nickolin@morganstanley.comLingdi Xu +1 212 761-3592

Economist

Lingdi.Xu@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-2957

Repricing Sofia Palacios

Sofia.Palacios@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-0428

US-Iran tensions and a renewed Hormuz focus lifted oil; Waller's

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

hawkish comments lifted July hike odds toward 50%; global Gek Teng Khoo

rates bear-flattened, the USD strengthened, and AI-led equities StrategistGek.Teng.Khoo@morganstanley.com +852 3963-0303

extended their sell-off following Korea's tech weakness; DXY at

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

101.28 (+0.3%); US 10y at 4.62 (+6.3bp). Hiromu Uezato

Renewed geopolitical tensions and hawkish Fed commentary pushed oil, yields, Hiromu.Uezato@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8431

and the dollar higher while weighing on equities and rate-sensitive assets. Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Nimish M Prabhune

The 2026 Extel Global Fixed Income Poll is now open and your participation Strategist

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Developed Markets

• US rates bear-flattened as higher oil prices and hawkish comments from