Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts: Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls

Research evidence excerpt

Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts: Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls

Global Idea

July 13, 2026 06:35 PM GMTM

Morgan Stanley Research: Key Forecasts

Next 12-Months Outlook: Our High-Conviction Calls Next 12-Months Snapshot

Morgan Stanley Strategists and Economists are competing in the Extel Fixed Income Research Poll. If investors have found In the US, we expect that the deceleration in inflation in the next several prints will

our work useful, this survey matters to us and we’d really appreciate their support. Investors can go to Extel | Voting Help to support purchasing power and real consumption growth. With the continued

vote/request a ballot. Thank you! firmness in real investment spending growth, real growth remains supported in

The economic outlook remains constructive: With oil prices lower, hiring slowing in the US, and inflation risks moderating, 2H26 in the US. At a global level, the growth impulse is increasingly capex and

we think that the Fed has room to remain patient. The July CPI will be important; lower energy prices are set to weigh on manufacturing-led, with Asia at the center. 2Q growth momentum in the region is

headline inflation, but core inflation will have some moving parts after a soft print last month - we expect tariff disinflation holding up better than expected, supported by AI demand and a broader capex

cycle tied to energy security, defense spending, and supply-chain reconfiguration.

to help drive core lower over the summer months. In the euro area, inflation has surprised to the downside, but we still expect

Chinese growth remains K-shaped, with industrial and export momentum

core inflation to remain broadly sideways at 2.4%Y by end-2026 before easing in 2027 as wage growth moderates. While