Global Credit: What We‘re Watching

Research evidence excerpt

Global Credit: What We‘re Watching

July 13, 2026 04:10 PM GMT

GLOBAL CREDIT STRATEGY

M O R G A N S T A N L E Y R E S E A R C HGlobal Credit: What We’re Watching Global

A small favor: The Extel Global Fixed Income Survey is now open. If you have enjoyed our research, we'd appreciate your support in the Investment Grade, Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

High Yield Strategy, and Credit Derivatives Strategy categories across US/EU/Asia. Thank you! Vishwas Patkar

Strategist

Key Recommendations: We continue to recommend buying CDS on AI-exposed names within US IG as demand for hedging keeps increasing. Credit Vishwas.Patkar@morganstanley.com

exposure to AI has risen rapidly across both markets, doubling in IG and more than tripling in HY over the past year. We also maintain our preference for EU +1 212 761 8041

IG over US IG, given our expectation of greater supply headwinds in the latter. We prefer to hedge any further rise in uncertainty in the Middle East by buying

protection on iTraxx XO funded by selling Main on a 1:4.5x ratio. Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Aron Becker

US Investment Grade: Hyperscalers and renewed Middle-East uncertainty weighed on US IG performance. Spreads widened by 2bp over the week, Aron.Becker@morganstanley.com

delivering excess returns of -0.2%. Spread curves bear-steepened, while performance was similar across ratings. Media, tech, and telecoms delivered the +44 0(207) 677 0754

weakest excess returns, while basic industry, energy, and real estate held in better. US IG funds saw $7bn of net inflows last week, the largest flow this year, Ellie Dann

lifting YTD inflows to +$98bn. Primary market activity was robust with $54bn of bonds pricing last week. YTD supply is tracking at $1,370bn (+32% YoY). Strategist

Ellie.Dann@morganstanley.com