Americas Natural Gas: New Bernstein Power Model helps confirm our bullish gas outlook...Haynesville activity doesn‘t deter us

Research evidence excerpt

Americas Natural Gas: New Bernstein Power Model helps confirm our bullish gas outlook...Haynesville activity doesn‘t deter us

13 July 2026

Americas Energy & Transition

Americas Natural Gas: New Bernstein Power Model helps confirm

our bullish gas outlook...Haynesville activity doesn't deter us

Bernstein has recently launched on Americas Power and Energy Transition (The American Bob Brackett, Ph.D.

+1 917 344 8422 Energy Transition: Grid, Gas, and Green - Sector Initiation - Power and Energy Transition)

bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com including a proprietary US power model. That new forecast strongly informs our gas demand

into power. We update our US gas model accordingly and update most recent data across

Minnie Xu power, LNG, other demand and supply. We reiterate our long term mid-cycle gas price deck

+1 917 344 8574

minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com of $5/mcf .

Raphael Lee We argue gas demand growth is 3 pronged:

+1 917 344 8355

raphael.lee@bernsteinsg.com - As LNG capacity continues to expand, LNG liftings will grow in tandem from ~18 bcfd in

early 2026 to ~33 bcfd in late 2030 (Exhibit 17).

- We project aggregate power demand to grow at a 2.6% CAGR through 2030 (Exhibit 2),

with gas making up a large percentage of the fuel mix (Exhibit 3).

- As supply increases (but also remains disciplined), we expect losses from extraction, plant

use, and distribution to consume more gas linearly (Exhibit 9).

We continue to highlight supply discipline in the Permian (the largest source of gas

growth associated with shale oil drilling) as well as the Appalachia basin (Exhibit 11).

Since the start of 2024, Permian and Appalachian rig counts are down 25% and 21%,

respectively.

We also observe the tick up in rigs in the Haynesville that suggest increased activity, but