Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum: AI Capex, BOJ Policy and CPI/Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Morgan Stanley Global Macro Forum: AI Capex, BOJ Policy and CPI/Earnings Preview

Key Takeaways

• Change to our BoJ call: Rate hikes to 1.25% in December 2026 and 1.5% in June 2027 are our new base case. Our

previous base case had assumed a rate hike to 1.25% in spring 2027. An earlier rate hike in October 2026 also remains a

risk scenario. At the June MPM, the BoJ signaled concern about the risk that underlying inflation could exceed its 2%

target. Subsequently, the June Tankan survey (released on July 1) supports the BoJ’s rate-hike stance, which informs the

rationale for our change.

• AI ecosystem remains compute-constrained and the urgency to spend remains high: We expect capex spend to

continue to head higher (now expected to reach to $1.2tr/$1.4tr across the five primary companies we track) and are laser

focused on companies' ability to bring on capacity to drive and benefit from incremental AI-enabled revenue. The Meta

news represents an attractive profit opportunity for Meta to monetize temporary excess compute capacity.

• AI capex and corporate credit: Corporate supply is tracking 20%+ higher than 2025, with AI-driven financing driving the

bulk of the ‘delta’. Issuance has broadened beyond hyperscalers to other megacaps and project financing deals for DC

construction and AI-related debt is a growing share of the IG and HY market. Despite the recent underperformance of AI-

related debt, attractive all-in yields and inflows continue to anchor credit. A rate rally remains the biggest risk.

• Q2 earnings ahead: Expect robust earnings growth across the market, driven by the return of positive operating leverage.

Equities remain sensitive to front-end rates; Fed on hold this year would be a positive surprise for US stocks.