Money Forward (3994.T): Q2 in line with expectations - impact of security incident minimal, business expanding smoothly

Research evidence excerpt

Money Forward (3994.T): Q2 in line with expectations - impact of security incident minimal, business expanding smoothly

Flash |

13 Jul 2026 05:48:51 ET │ 9 pages

Money Forward (3994.T)

Q2 in line with expectations - impact of security incident minimal,

business expanding smoothly

CITI'S TAKE Buy / High Risk

Price (13 Jul 26 15:30) ¥5,071.0 FY11/26 Q2 results saw revenue of ¥14.3bn (+40% YoY) and SaaS ARR of

Target price ¥4,800.0 ¥47.7bn (+34%), and while OP was negative at -¥0.4bn, strong growth

continued. We believe Q2 results were in line with consensus and our Expected share price return -5.3%

expectations, with no surprises. The company revised up full-year Expected dividend yield 0.0%

guidance to revenue of ¥60.5-62.3bn, OP of -¥0.5bn to +¥1.5bn, and Expected total return -5.3%

adjusted EBITDA to ¥10.5-11.5bn, which we expect slightly exceeds Market Cap ¥281,345M

consensus. Regarding the May 2026 security incident, while the home US$1,743M

business expects a c¥0.15bn negative impact in Q3 and slightly higher

security enhancement costs, the impact remains minimal. We find it

reassuring that conditions have recovered to pre-incident levels. While

results and guidance were in line with expectations, the solid earnings Keiichi YoneshimaAC

showing leaves us with a somewhat positive impression for the stock +81-3-6776-8033

price. keiichi.yoneshima@citi.com

Implications — We found it reassuring that the security incident's impact remained

minimal. The company has begun partial monetization of AI-powered services, and

while we a expect full earnings contribution only from FY11/27 onward, we see

positive expectations building. We assume AI integration is easier to implement on

cloud platforms than in on-premises systems, suggesting cloud service revenue