May Q Results: Strong Card Business Drives Full-Year Guidance Upgrade; Security Incident Impact Remains Limited

Research evidence excerpt

May Q Results: Strong Card Business Drives Full-Year Guidance Upgrade; Security Incident Impact Remains Limited

Update

July 13, 2026 10:36 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MMoney Forward (3994) | Japan Luyuan Yang, CFA

Equity Analyst

May Q Results: Strong Card Luyuan.Yang@morganstanleymufg.comTetsuro Tsusaka, CFA +81 3 6836-8423

Tetsuro.Tsusaka@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8412

Business Drives Full-Year Keiji Nishimura

Research Associate

Keiji.Nishimura@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-8424

Guidance Upgrade; Security

Incident Impact Remains Limited

Reaction to earnings

Money Forward (3994.T, 3994 JP)

Unchanged In-line Largely unchanged IT & Software | Japan

Impact to our thesis Financial results versus consensus Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research Price target ¥4,500

Shr price, close (Jul 13, 2026) ¥5,071

Results: Revenue +24% YoY, operating loss of ¥377mn (OPM -3%). Strong growth in Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥279.7

Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥3.3

the Business segment drove revenue, but lower flow revenue in the Card business,

higher personnel costs, and cybersecurity incident-related expenses resulted in an

operating loss.

Earnings surprise: The company raised its full-year revenue and profit guidance,

driven by stronger-than-expected performance in the Card business, M&A

contributions, and gains from the sale of operating investment securities. The

revised guidance also incorporates additional security enhancement costs.

Recommended action: Although the stock had been volatile following the security

incident, the earnings release confirmed that the impact on operations was limited,

which could support the share price.