2Q Preview: Positive Setups on NET, VRNS, CCC; Watch CHKP, TENB

Research evidence excerpt

2Q Preview: Positive Setups on NET, VRNS, CCC; Watch CHKP, TENB

Barclays | Security/Design/Vertical SaaS

3Q25 on some slipped deals and an early renewal, so we may not see billings growth start to

improve until 4Q. So while the stock looks cheap at current levels, it still may be a couple

quarters before we see a catalyst – furthermore, we think CHKP will need to do more

meaningful M&A to build up its emerging business before it could potentially reaccelerate

growth.

• Other security: (1) For NET, we believe the recent inflection in traffic is a positive leading

indicator for revenue and could see the lag in traffic monetization start to catch up; (2)

GEN should grow high-single-digits excluding onetime impacts y/y, and MoneyLion

synergies should drive growth in 2H; (3) we like VRNS as SaaS ARR ex-conversions could

keep marching up through the year and FY27 ARR growth could accelerate; (4) for TENB,

we think our 7% y/y growth estimates for CCB and revenue are beatable, but we don't

know if a beat and flow-through will be enough for the stock to work following the

intra-quarter stock movement. For NET, we think increased traffic growth and the ramping

of a large 4Q25 PoF cohort support ~31% cRPO growth and ~30% revenue growth in 2Q, with

potential upside as the lag between request volumes and monetization begins to narrow as

customers work through existing volume caps. We also note that Cloudflare has gained

~150bps of share in reverse proxy and now sits in front of ~24% of the internet, showing

acceleration in share gains. For GEN, this fiscal Q1 will comp against the extra week in FY26

and also lap the MoneyLion acquisition, which closed in April 2025 – if we exclude these two

items from the y/y comp, we are modeling ~4% growth in the Cyber Safety Platform segment