2Q26 Mexico Banks Preview

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Mexico Banks Preview

Equity Research

13 July 2026

Canada & Latin America Banks

We expect 2Q26 results for Mexican Banks to reflect

continued EPS growth and mid-teens to low 20% ROEs. A

reiteration of 2026 outlooks with healthy loan growth and Canada & Latin America Banks POSITIVE

Unchangedpositive boost from the World Cup should generate

momentum into 2H26, in our opinion, despite the non- Canada & Latin America Banks

Brian Morton, CFA

renewal of the USMCA. +1 212 526 2163

brian.morton@barclays.com

BCI, US

For 2Q26, we expect Mexican bank results to display continued y-o-y earnings growth

driven by sustained loan and deposit growth and benign credit quality though higher

revenue-related expenses. Still, we expect investors will focus on the sustainability of loan

growth in light of the recent decision by the US to not renew the USMCA agreement at this

time. Looking out, we expect Mexican banks to refresh guidance for 2026 calling for mid-teens

to low 20% ROEs, high single-digit to low double-digit EPS growth, modest NIM compression,

and benign credit quality trends. Given the modest pullback during 2Q26, we believe

positive earnings results and a reiteration of Mexican bank 2026 constructive outlooks

should be sufficient to improve momentum in 2H26.

Key drivers. NII/NIM: Overall, we expect NII at the median bank to rise 10% y-o-y and gain 3.9%

linked quarter. Balance Sheet: Loans and deposits up y-o-y and q-o-q although at a moderating

pace. Fee Income & Expenses: Fees lower but expenses slightly higher sequentially. Credit

Quality: Remains benign.

Conference call talking points: We expect several items to gain outsized attention on the

conference calls including, the impact of the US decision not to renew the USMCA and re-