The fertiliser and weather risk nexus

Research evidence excerpt

The fertiliser and weather risk nexus

Special Report

Credit & Macro Research

13 July 2026

Sustainable Investing

The fertiliser and weather risk

nexus

Concerns around fertiliser disruption and a potential Super El

Sustainable Investing Research

Niño are rising. Our analysis identifies the crops and Charlotte Edwards, CFA(iii)

countries where these pressures appear most concentrated +44 (0) 20 3134 0392 charlotte.edwards@barclays.com

ahead of the 2027 growing season. Barclays, UK

Thematic FICC Research

• Fertiliser market disruption and a potential Super El Niño could create concentrated Carlos Eduardo Garcia Martinez(i)

agricultural risks in 2027. We develop a framework that combines fertiliser supply +1 212 523 7426

vulnerability, crop dependence on fertilisers and historical weather sensitivity to identify carlosed.garciamartinez@barclays.com

where risks may be most pronounced. BCI, US

• Agricultural vulnerability varies significantly by crop and geography. Our results highlight

large differences across crop-country combinations. This suggests that agricultural risks are

unlikely to be evenly distributed across global food systems.

• Cocoa, coffee and rice are the most exposed crops in our analysis. These commodities

stand out due to a combination of fertiliser dependence, weather sensitivity and

concentration in vulnerable producing regions. Production-at-risk analysis suggests a

particularly large share of global cocoa and coffee production falls within our highest-risk

categories. Several countries across Sub-Saharan Africa and Southeast Asia emerge as

relative risk hotspots.

Barclays Capital Inc. and/or one of its affiliates does and seeks to do business with companies

covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a