Fraport AG (FRAG.DE): Downgrades traffic outlook, continue to expect -ve consensus revisions

Research evidence excerpt

Fraport AG (FRAG.DE): Downgrades traffic outlook, continue to expect -ve consensus revisions

Equity Research

13 July 2026 | 8:34AM CEST

Fraport AG (FRAG.DE): Downgrades traffic outlook, continue to expect

-ve consensus revisions

Fraport reported 1st half traffic figures this morning (-0.8%yoy, -1.7% in June), and is Patrick Creuset

+33(1)4212-1380 |

revising its full year traffic outlook lower on the back of the release. The company patrick.creuset@gs.com

Goldman Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

now expects traffic to remain flat yoy in 2026 (vs. 3-4.5% original FY26 guidance). Branch

While this is seen to have a dampening effect on financial performance, financial Dan-Arthur Coseru

guidance is still seen as achievable, and the company maintains its outlook. +44(20)7552-2216arthur.coseru@gs.com| dan-

Goldman Sachs International

This is exactly what we had anticipated in our recent airports note: A lower traffic Nathan Arnaud

outlook for 2026, consensus earnings downgrades as a result, but avoiding a +33(1)4212-1691nathan.arnaud@gs.com|

financial guidance downgrade, largely owing to the relatively broad range given GoldmanBranch Sachs Bank Europe SE - Paris

(EBITDA up to €1.5bn, FCF in the low triple digit millions). We forecast EBITDA of

€1.44bn (flat yoy) vs. Bloomberg consensus of €1.48bn. The issue for the stock is that

without meaningful EBITDA growth, and with its (in our view high) medium-term

capex guidance, de-leverage will be too slow to return to material dividend

payments anytime soon. The bar would be lower if capex plans were reduced to

maintenance levels, in our view more consistent with the longer-term traffic trend in

Frankfurt.

Price Target Risks and Methodology - Fraport AG

We are Neutral-rated on Fraport, with a DCF-based SOTP 12-month price target of