Global debt issuance growth accelerates in 2Q, driving ratings revenue upside for SPGI and MCO

Research evidence excerpt

Global debt issuance growth accelerates in 2Q, driving ratings revenue upside for SPGI and MCO

Equity Research

12 July 2026 | 10:08PM PDT

AMERICAS BUSINESS & INFORMATION SERVICES

Global debt issuance growth accelerates in 2Q, driving ratings revenue

upside for SPGI and MCO

Global debt issuance volumes accelerated sharply in 2Q, creating incrementally George K. Tong, CFA

+1(415)249-7421 | george.tong@gs.com

positive implications for near-term ratings revenue growth at S&P Global and Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Moody’s. Global debt issuance increased 31% y/y in 2Q vs 4% growth in 1Q, driven Anna Wu

by strong investment grade issuance and healthy double-digit growth across most +1(415)249-7235Goldman Sachs & Co.| anna.wu@gs.comLLC

debt categories. Reflecting these trends, we raise our 2Q Ratings revenue growth Sami Nasir, CFA

estimate for SPGI to 15.2% y/y from 13.2% previously and our 2Q MIS revenue +1(415)834-7967Goldman Sachs & Co.| sami.nasir@gs.comLLC

growth estimate for MCO to 15.4% from 11.5%. On a full-year 2026 basis, we raise Alex Lakritz

our SPGI Ratings revenue growth forecast to 7.5% from 6.7% and our MCO MIS +1(415)249-7072 | alex.lakritz@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

revenue growth forecast to 7.7% from 7.0%. Private credit issuance, which is not

captured in our debt issuance tracker, represents a potential source of upside to our

ratings revenue estimates. We reiterate our Buy ratings on SPGI and MCO based on

our expectations of sustained ratings revenue growth supported by a healthy

refinancing pipeline, recovering M&A activity and continued expansion in private

credit, as well as our outlook for compounding low-to-mid teens EPS growth and

favorable positioning to benefit from AI.

Debt issuance volumes accelerated materially in 2Q. Global debt issuance rose