CMD: Where consensus looks too low

Research evidence excerpt

CMD: Where consensus looks too low

Equity Research

European Banks

13 July 2026

Lloyds Banking Group PLC

CMD: Where consensus looks too

low

Given the UK political backdrop, there's a clear case for LLOY.L/LLOY LN OVERWEIGHT

Lloyds to be somewhat conservative at its upcoming CMD, Unchanged

but we ultimately see a stronger outlook for EPS and European Banks UnchangedPOSITIVE

particularly capital – underpinned by a clear path to RoTE Price Target GBp 130

sustainability above 20% – with DD upside potential vs cons. raised 3% from GBp 126

We remain OW. Price (09-Jul-26) GBp 112 Potential Upside/Downside +16.4%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

The following companies are privately held and are not under coverage by Barclays Research:

Aldermore. Information about these companies is being provided for information purposes only Market Cap (GBP mn) 65042

and is not an investment recommendation by Barclays Research. Shares Outstanding (mn) 58229.49

Free Float (%) 99.97

Lloyds may strike a conservative tone at its 30 July CMD, given UK political and bank tax 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 103.0

uncertainty. But our updated work points to a stronger medium-term earnings and capital Dividend Yield (%) 3.27

outlook than consensus. We see a credible path to >21.5% 2028e RoTE (plus drivers of operating Return on Equity TTM (%) 10.53

leverage thereafter), and c300bp of annual capital generation driving higher distributions or Current BVPS (GBp) 82

inorganic growth. We also run illustrative Aldermore acquisition maths, which suggests that Source: Bloomberg

potential EPS accretion could far outweigh the buyback foregone. PT to 130p; remain OW.

Price Performance Exchange-LSE• Consensus looks too low: We see Lloyds rebuilding to >21.5% RoTE by 2028e, supported by

52 Week range GBP 1.16-0.74