The EU Auto Data Handbook: June 2026 (Launch Edition)

Research evidence excerpt

The EU Auto Data Handbook: June 2026 (Launch Edition)

st partially) attributed the FY26 earnings

shortfall to much weaker-than-expected China performance (both total market and BMW

itself). And although we think perhaps only 50% of BMW's warning was directly attributable

to China, Mercedes's similarly large EBIT exposure (BARCe) makes MBG also screen quite

vulnerable. The key question will be how much more conservative MBG has been with its

China assumptions within its FY26 guidance and if it can therefore absorb the weak China

volumes within its existing guidance. And while VW/Audi/P911 are also very weak in China

YTD, their relatively low exposure should reduce their vulnerability on a group EBIT level, in

our view. Also see our recent note China risk assessment: Deep dive into EU Auto China

exposure following BMW warning (18 June).

• Inventory levels remain stable, but DSO increased YoY on weaker sales (MBG 1.8x, BMW

1.6x, Audi 2.1x, Porsche 1.9x, FAW-VW 2.6x, SAIC-VW 2.1x).

Other Key Industry Highlights

• Commodity prices have partially reversed since mid-May, but remain well above FY25

level. Our tracked material basket now stands at €2,771/€4,831 per ICE/BEV (+24%/+40% vs

2025 average; +7%/+8% vs 1Q26), driven primarily by higher steel, copper and lithium prices.

Lithium prices are now 121% above FY25 average, increasing EV production costs and making

the path to EV margin parity more challenging, particularly as xEV penetration continues to

increase. Together with higher DRAM prices, the persistence of cost inflation remains a key

watchpoint heading into H2 2026 and 2027, as OEMs begin to roll over hedge positions and

renew long-term supply contracts.

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