Navigating the Super El Niño

Research evidence excerpt

Navigating the Super El Niño

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FIGURE 1. Current El Niño index forecasts FIGURE 2. Global average temperatures tend to rise following El Niño events

Grey area indicates the uncertainty bounds. Values above 0.5 indicate an El Niño. Values below Blue line: global average temperatures (NASA-GISS Temp). light blue, yellow and green lines

-0.5 indicate a La Niña. show expert prediction ranges for 2026 and 2027 average temperatures. Red shading shows El

Niño years. Darker shading marks stronger El Niños.

Source: NOAA, IRI Source: NASA, NOAA, UK Met Office, Hausfather 2026, Hansen 2026, Berkeley Earth.

The current outlook is notably stronger than the El Niño event of 2023-24, which

peaked near 2.0°C and was associated with widespread drought, hydropower

shortages, agricultural disruptions and record global temperatures. By contrast, the

2015-16 event peaked at around 2.8°C and is widely regarded as one of the strongest

El Niños on modern record, contributing to severe drought across southern Africa,

Indonesia and parts of South America, while disrupting agricultural production and

power generation in several emerging economies. Current forecasts suggest the

coming event could approach those levels of intensity, although the ultimate impact

will depend on the timing, persistence and interaction with other climate drivers.

Seasonal weather forecasts additionally highlight drought risk for Central America

and Caribbean, India, South Africa, Australia and strong drought risk across

Southeast Asia, with some above average precipitation in the southern US, Chile,

Argentina, the horn of Africa and the Middle East. This current seasonal forecast is

consistent with a typical significant El Niño event.