Looking ahead to Q2 and medium-term expectations

Research evidence excerpt

Looking ahead to Q2 and medium-term expectations

Equity Research

13 July 2026 | 2:32AM BST

EUROPE BANKS

Ahead of the European banks’ Q2 earnings season, we analyse consensus Chris Hallam

+44(20)7552-2958 |

expectations for the quarter and for full-year 2026/27E for 38 European banks. For chris.hallam@gs.com

Goldman Sachs International

the quarter, Visible Alpha Consensus Data expects aggregate ROTE for the sector of

Sofie Peterzens15.9%, broadly stable q/q, supported by higher NII q/q, lower costs and lower +44(20)7051-5283 |

impairments (-5% q/q), which drives a 2% improvement in PBT for the quarter. For sofie.peterzens@gs.comGoldman Sachs International

the medium term, consensus expects ROTE to improve in every year, reaching c.17% Benjamin Caven-Roberts

in 2028E, supporting continued shareholder distributions and underpinning the +44(20)7552-7066roberts@gs.com | benjamin.d.caven-

attractive valuation we see for the sector. Goldman Sachs International

Andin Kour Sason

Q2 expectations in aggregate: Consensus Q2 NII shows a 2% q/q increase, rising +1(332)245-7825Goldman Sachs India| andin.kour@gs.comSPL

c.9% y/y, with the sequential increase supported by a modest uptick in loans and Sachin Nayar

deposit volumes, which are expected to be up c.1% q/q. NIMs remain broadly stable. +44(20)7051-2598 | sachin.x.nayar@gs.com

On a y/y basis, NII should remain supported by an improvement in margins, volume Goldman Sachs International

growth (loans and deposits expected to grow c.6% y/y) and hedge tailwinds. Khushboo Mandani

+1(332)245-7978 |

Non-interest income, on the other hand, is expected to grow by 10% y/y, while falling khushboo.mandani@gs.com

Goldman Sachs India SPL

sequentially, supported by strong growth in global markets business (both Equities

Eraldo Bausano