Sodexo (EXHO.PA): Expectations elevated into the CMD; Remain Neutral with new €55 TP

Research evidence excerpt

Sodexo (EXHO.PA): Expectations elevated into the CMD; Remain Neutral with new €55 TP

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13 Jul 2026 01:26:14 ET │ 26 pages

Sodexo (EXHO.PA)

Expectations elevated into the CMD; Remain Neutral with new €55 TP

CITI'S TAKE

Ahead of Sodexo CMD on Thursday 16 July, we see a negative risk-reward

given the recent rerating of the stock vs the potential for FY27 guidance to Neutral / High Risk

be marginally behind consensus EBIT expectation and open a negative

catalyst watch. With new analysis of WARN notice data pointing to two Catalyst Watch: Downside

larger contracts terminating in June/July, we think Sodexo should accelerate Price (10 Jul 26 17:30) €52.95

investments to improve delivery and retention in outer years, but with the Target price €55.00↑effect of weighing on FY27 organic growth and margin. We think the stock

is fairly valued, and we want to see the effects of the investments into FY28E from €49.00

before turning more constructive. Retain our Neutral/H rating. Expected share price return 3.9%

Expected dividend yield 3.2%

Expectations elevated — YTD, Sodexo’s share price is +20% with NTM EV/EBIT

Expected total return 7.1%+44%. FY27e expectations were lowered on the back of two guidance cuts (Oct’25

and Apr’26). A solid 3Q26 performance (here) has helped but with valuation near +1 Market Cap €7,808M

stdev vs peer LT average, we think the expectations for improved performance are US$8,929M

already baked into the share price given little near-term upside to estimates and our

new analysis of WARN notices indicates that the business is not yet stabilised.

Citi CMD expectations — Sodexo could target mid-term 1) Organic growth of 4.5-

6.5% helped by retention (VA consensus +2.7%/3.6% for FY27/28E); 2) Margins: Price Performance

mid-term ambition of >4.5%.