Global Economic Weekly: Finding Memo

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Global Economic Weekly: Finding Memo

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Global Economic Weekly

Finding Memo

Global Letter: Finding Memo 10 July 2026

The escalation in the Middle East reignites volatility in oil prices at a time when underlying Economics

US inflation continues to show signs of persistence, inflation expectations are ticking up, Global

the labor market remains solid, financial conditions remain very accommodative, and the

new Fed's monetary policy framework is still in the making. Given the importance of oil Table of Contents

prices and US financial conditions for the global economy, an escalation of tensions in the

Global Letter 2

Middle East could represent an underpriced risk. Given the wealth effect-driven

US 3

consumption, a correction in equity markets could directly hit consumption dynamics.

Euro area 6

UK 12US: A “summer of fun”

The World Cup continues to drive strong spending at restaurants and bars in the 11 US Asia 17

host cities. However, the World Cup tailwind is starting to fade. It roughly correlates with Emerging EMEA 20

the number of games played per day, so it peaked around the end of the group stage. Latin America 21

Meanwhile, the “holiday bump” in BAC card spending around July 4 was similar this year Key forecasts 23

to the prior two years. This is true across both holiday-related services and goods. Detailed forecasts 24

Bottom line: the consumer looks healthy, and that’s unlikely to change in coming months. Research Analysts 30

Euro area: Tracking German stimulus, slippage & reform

Tracking fiscal impulse: spending progress seems ok. Construction data shows effects, Claudio Irigoyen

Global Economist

but monetary policy hits the breaks. Tracking fiscal slippage: the new 2027 budget plan BofAS

raises net borrowing needs, again.