Merlin Entertainments Group US Holdings: Deep dive into park crowd data

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Merlin Entertainments Group US Holdings: Deep dive into park crowd data

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Merlin Entertainments Group US Holdings

Deep dive into park crowd data

Credit Analysis

Insights from 10y data 10 July 2026

Park crowdedness is an indicator for visitor numbers, and in turn a proxy to topline. We High Yield Credit

aggregate 10 years of crowd data covering 14 Merlin parks across 3 regions, and find United States

decent level correlation between yoy changes of crowd data vs Merlin reported visitor Media & Entertainment

growth/decline. We deep dive into historical and current crowd data, with two goals in Mark Xu, CFA

mind: 1) assess upcoming 2Q26 performance, 2) find historical pattern and lessons. Research Analyst

BofASE (France)

Mixed 2Q26 insights +33mark.xu2@bofa.com1 8770 0863

2Q26 performance saw significant regional differences. UK is decent with synchronised Conor Forde

recovery, driven by solid domestic short-break demand. US parks remain uninspiring and ResearchMLI (UK) Analyst

fragmented, with material performance divergence driven by regional differences, asset conor.forde@bofa.com

maturity, and distinctive IPs. RoW shows continued material weakness with no recovery

in sight. We note Merlin management was cautious on 2Q26 results recently, by stating

YoY: Year-over-Yearoverall dynamics does not differ materially vs 1Q26.

IP: Intellectual Property

Long term concerns

We draw bearish conclusion from Merlin parks’ long-term crowd data, as we see: 1) Comps: Comparables

persistent structural weak performances, 2) US assets struggle to deliver growth even in

Opex: Operational expendituretheir early years, 3) legacy IP more vulnerable vs Lego, 4) growth fades quickly without

sustained capex investment.