In a tight spot

Research evidence excerpt

In a tight spot

Idea

July 13, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MPernod Ricard SA | Europe Sarah Simon

Equity Analyst

In a tight spot Sarah.Simon@morganstanley.comTilly Eno +44 20 7425-6064

Tilly.Eno@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-3662

We resume coverage of Pernod Ricard with an Underweight David J Roux

rating. With the balance sheet constrained, key markets still Equity Analyst

David.Roux@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1040

difficult, and its largest competitor set to take a more aggressive Chris Linford, CFA

position on price, we see pressure building. We expect DD ResearchChris.Linford@morganstanley.comAssociate +44 20 7425-1639

earnings downgrades for FY27. Richard Li

Research Associate

Richard.Li@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-1976

Key Takeaways

Pernod Ricard SA (PERP.PA, RI FP)

Pernod's key focus has, rightly, been on controlling what it can control. In this

Beverages | France

case, the focus is on closing the gap to market, and cutting costs

Stock Rating Underweight

Industry View In-Line

Meanwhile, the US and China markets remain tough, and Europe is sluggish. We

Price target €59

believe that softness in DMs is largely structural Shr price, close (Jul 9, 2026) €64

52-Week Range €107-59

We expect Diageo price readjustments in key markets to put pressure on Pernod Mkt cap, curr (mn) €15,996

Net debt (06/26e) (mn)* €10,315

market share, pricing, gross margin and, by implication, operating profits EV, curr (mn)* €27,738

Our estimates suggest it is unlikely that Pernod can delever as fast as planned * = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

although it does have options including, for example, disposals or reducing cash Fiscal Year Ending 06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

dividends EPS (€)** 7.26 5.51 5.05 5.19

Prior EPS (€)** 7.25 5.43 5.51 5.74